Homework IV: Markets Predictions


  1. 1.      Predictions on wireless power transmission:

With an increased need of the today’s society to use wireless electronic devices, people are still facing the challenge to recharge their devices every few hours of use. Because of this power problem and the pragmatic-theory feasibility of making wireless power transmitters, scientists, engineers, companies in general have started pondering at the possible future ( that—may—become—ubiquitous) wireless power transmission technology, a technique first experimented by NiKola Tesla,  a Serbian-American Inventor, Electrical and Mechanical Engineer, in 1891.

According to Deloitte’s Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) 2012 predications,    although not very popular or commonly used, “ The Radio Frequency (RF) power harvesting products will likely remain at a niche market with only moderate growth potential due to fundamental limits with the technology itself.”  About the prices, it would be hard at this very year of 2012 along the timeline to point out whether or not the price of the wireless power transmission or conversion products is right, too high, or too low.  However, if the technology becomes more popular, it will be possible to examine what the prince ranges should be.  Some of the main technical hindrances that this technology still faces are:

  • There is not enough ambient RF energy available
  • Distances are too great
  • Converting ambient  energy into usable energy is too inefficient
  • Environmental factors interfere with RF power harvesting

Although these discouraging factors remain, wireless power technology is now getting a popular use in small sensors, HVAC systems with short ranged wireless power controllers are coming to market. Also, it is in arguments that next generation TVs and game consoles will come to market with wireless power technologies.

1.  2.   Market Predictions: www.Intrade.com : The 2012 French Presidential Race (I invested $1000 in Nicolas Sarkozy’s winning)

Date

Open

Low

High

Close

Volume

8-Oct-11

25

25

25

25

1

9-Oct-11

25

25

25

25

0

10-Oct-11

25

25

25

25

0

11-Oct-11

25

25

25

25

0

12-Oct-11

25

25

25

25

0

13-Oct-11

25

25

25

25

0

14-Oct-11

45

45

45

45

2

15-Oct-11

45

45

45

45

0

16-Oct-11

45

45

45

45

0

17-Oct-11

45

45

45

45

0

18-Oct-11

45

45

45

45

0

19-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

1

20-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

21-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

22-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

23-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

24-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

25-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

26-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

27-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

28-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

29-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

30-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

31-Oct-11

26

26

26

26

0

1-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

2-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

3-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

4-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

5-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

6-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

7-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

8-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

9-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

10-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

11-Nov-11

26

26

26

26

0

12-Nov-11

31

31

31

31

1

13-Nov-11

31

31

31

31

0

14-Nov-11

31

31

31

31

0

15-Nov-11

31

31

31

31

0

16-Nov-11

31

31

31

31

0

17-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

40

40

6

18-Nov-11

40

40

40

40

0

19-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

1

20-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

2

21-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

22-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

23-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

24-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

25-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

26-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

27-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

28-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

29-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

30-Nov-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

1

1-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

2-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

3-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

4-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

4

5-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

6-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

7-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

8-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

9-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

10-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

11-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

12-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

13-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

14-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

15-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

16-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

17-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

18-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

19-Dec-11

39.9

39.9

39.9

39.9

0

20-Dec-11

37

37

37

37

1

21-Dec-11

37

37

37

37

0

22-Dec-11

37

37

37

37

0

23-Dec-11

37

37

37

37

0

24-Dec-11

37

37

37

37

0

25-Dec-11

37

37

37

37

0

26-Dec-11

37

37

37

37

0

27-Dec-11

42

42

42

42

2

28-Dec-11

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

1

29-Dec-11

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

30-Dec-11

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

1

31-Dec-11

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

1-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

2-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

3-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

4-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

5-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

1

6-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

7-Jan-12

40

40

40

40

3

8-Jan-12

40

37.6

40

39.9

23

9-Jan-12

36

36

36

36

3

10-Jan-12

39.9

35.7

39.9

35.7

4

11-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

8

12-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

13-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

14-Jan-12

35.6

35

35.6

35

12

15-Jan-12

35

35

35

35

2

16-Jan-12

35

35

35

35

0

17-Jan-12

35

35

35

35

0

18-Jan-12

35.5

35.5

35.6

35.6

18

19-Jan-12

35.6

35.6

35.6

35.6

0

20-Jan-12

35.5

35.5

35.5

35.5

1

21-Jan-12

35.5

35.5

35.5

35.5

1

22-Jan-12

35.5

35.5

35.5

35.5

0

23-Jan-12

35.5

35.5

35.5

35.5

0

24-Jan-12

39.2

39.2

39.2

39.2

1

25-Jan-12

39.7

39.7

39.7

39.7

3

26-Jan-12

39.7

39.7

39.7

39.7

0

27-Jan-12

39.7

39.7

39.7

39.7

0

28-Jan-12

37

37

37

37

3

29-Jan-12

37

37

37

37

4

30-Jan-12

36

36

37

37

4

31-Jan-12

26.1

26

36

26

5

1-Feb-12

25.5

25

25.5

25

10

2-Feb-12

33

20

33

20

6

3-Feb-12

32

32

32

32

6

4-Feb-12

32

32

32

32

0

5-Feb-12

26.5

26.5

29.9

29.9

9

6-Feb-12

22

22

29

28

6

7-Feb-12

29

29

29

29

1

8-Feb-12

22

20.1

22

20.1

2

9-Feb-12

20.1

20.1

20.1

20.1

0

10-Feb-12

23.3

22.1

23.3

22.1

6

11-Feb-12

21

20.5

21

20.5

52

12-Feb-12

22.9

22.9

23.5

23.5

11

13-Feb-12

23.4

23.4

23.5

23.5

4

14-Feb-12

23.5

23.5

23.5

23.5

4

15-Feb-12

21.5

20.1

21.5

20.1

13

16-Feb-12

23.3

20.1

24

24

57

17-Feb-12

27.9

24.3

28.5

28.5

41

18-Feb-12

29.9

25.5

29.9

25.5

6

19-Feb-12

27.2

27.2

27.2

27.2

2

20-Feb-12

29.9

26.5

35

26.5

22

With an example of taking that past 200 days of prediction of the 2012 French Presidential Race and investing $1000 in the fact that Nicolas Sarkozy will win mostly because he is the current France’s president, I would have, for example, won ($1034-$1000) if I had bought my shares at the opening of 12/12/2012  and sold them right before the closing of that day.  If I were, however, to invest on some other day, I could have have lost if the opening prices were higher than the closing prices, and assuming that I would buy and sell my shares on the same day.

  1. 3.      10 Favorite predictions:
    1. Nasa to announce discovery of extraterrestrial live befor December 31, 2014  $1.0   10% chances
    2. Mitt Romney winning 2012 Republican nomination $7.1/share  chances 71%  chances
    3. Nikolas Sarkozy winning 2012 French Presidential Elections $3.29    chances 32.9%  chances
    4. Barack Obama winning 2012 Presidential Elections $5.9/share  59%
    5. US and Israel to conduct an air strike over  Iran before December 31, 2012   $5.29  52.9% Chances
    6. Central Park to have 10 inces of snow between 10/1/2011 and 4/30/2012  $3.2   32% Chances
    7. New York Freedom Tower building  to be open before December 31, 2013  $3.0    30% Chances
    8. Google Lunar X Prize offer before December 31, 2012 $3.0     30%  chances
    9. A cap and trade system for pollution emissions to be created before  December 31, 2012   $3.49  34.9%
    10. Magnitude of 7.5 or higher richtels to occur somewhere sometime before  December 31, 2012  $9.5  95%
  1. 4.      10 Favorite predictions with my own prediction chances
    1. Nasa to announce discovery of extraterrestrial live befor December 31, 2014  $1.0   10% chances,   I am  thinking  5%
    2. Mitt Romney winning 2012 Republican nomination $7.1/share  chances 71%  chances, I am thinking 50% since Santorum is rising
    3. Nikolas Sarkozy winning 2012 French Presidential Elections $3.29    chances 32.9%  chances, I am thinking 55% because he is the current president
    4. Barack Obama winning 2012 Presidential Elections $5.9/share  59%, I am thinking 70% because of all the today’s polls
    5. US and Israel to conduct an air strike over  Iran before December 31, 2012   $5.29  52.9% Chances, I am thinking 50% since the gas prices are threatening the world and USA doesn’t to be that very active about a new war
    6. Central Park to have 10 inches of snow between 10/1/2011 and 4/30/2012 $3.2   32% Chances, I am thinking 20% since the summer is getting closer!
    7. New York Freedom Tower building  to be open before December 31, 2013  $3.0    30% Chances, I think $40% since the building has been under construction for a while
    8. Google Lunar X Prize offer before December 31, 2012 $3.0     30%  chances, I think 20% because I didn’t find enough exciting news about this one.
    9. A cap and trade system for pollution emissions to be created before  December 31, 2012   $3.49  34.9%, I am thinking 40% because the environmental concerns are rising everyday
    10. Magnitude of 7.5 or higher richtels to occur somewhere sometime before  December 31, 2012  $9.5  95%, I am thinking 70 because we can never be sure about the natures reactions
  1. 5.      The ones where I feel I would be better off by investing in them:
    1. Sarkozy winning 2012 elections, I am investing $100 with $3.29/share, I have (100/3.29) shares=29.5
    2. Obama winning in 2012, I am investing $500 with $5.9/share, I would have (500/5.9)=85 shares
    3. Earthquake of 7.5 or higher richtels, I am investing $400 here, with $9.5/share, I would have (400/9.5)=42 shares
    4. The total investment amount here is around $1000
    5. I have invested all the money and $0.0 is the remainder.

 

You may ignore the answers below since I have answered all the homework questions already: they are about some companies form www.yahoo.finances.com that I was trying to work on using stock shares instead of contracts like the ones on INTRADE

  1. A.    Trial 1 you may ignore this one

10 Favorite prediction markets: Using: www.finance.yahoo.com   My future favorite possible company successes:

  • General Electric (It has a large market and numbers indicate its stock prices increase almost continually over time)
  • Windstream (I work there and I know it is growing fast)
  • Cisco Systems ( first, it is has a lot to do with telecommunications (my favorite field) and numbers show its stock prices are increasing)
  • Alcatel-Lucent (It’s telecom and owns Bell Laboratories…numbers show its market is growing and so are its shares)
  • Nokia corporation
  • eBay (it is getting more trustworthy over time …so many people are lean towards it at an increased level…share prices increasing)
  • Intel Corporation ( It is technology based…that’s why I chose it. And yes it’s share prices trends are showing good sings)
  • Microsoft Corporation ( I am using it to type and, although its share prices do not show good sings right now, its potential is increasing with an increased number of electronic device use)
  • AT&T (because it is telecom, although FCC denied it to buy T-Mobile a few months ago, its market will be growing over time)
  • Bank of America ( it is the bank I use and it has a great potential to never close any sooner…that is..its shares buyers/owners are somehow safe.)
  1. B.     Trial 2 You may ignore this one:

Probability Estimates per favorite companies: (See comments in answer to question3)

1)      General Electric  $19.28/share 68% chances optimistic

2)      Windstream Corporation  $12.48/share chances 56% chances optimistic

3)      Cisco Systems $20.29/share 50% chances  optimistic

4)      Alcatel-Lucent $2.45/share  50% chances optimistic

5)      Nokia corporation: $5.49/share 56% chances optimistic

6)      eBay $35.06/share 60% chances optimistic

7)      Intel Corporation $37.27/share 68% chances optimistic

8)      Microsoft Corporation $31.25/share 50%  chances optimistic pessimistic

9)      AT&T $30.01/share 51% chances pessimistic

10)  Bank of America $8.02/share chances 49 pessimistic


HOMEWORK III

Part 1:

    1. When will World War III happen?

  • Before discussion:

Time is unknown: This answer was chosen by 5 students.

Time is known:  2012, 2020, 2062, 2112 (that’s 4 people)

It will never happen: This answer was chosen by 2 people

  • After Discussion:

Time is unknown: This answer was chosen by 3 students

Time is known:   2012, 2020, 2060, 2062, 2062 (that’s 5 people)

Time unknown: This answer was chosen by 3 people

It will never happen: This answer was chosen by 2 people.

2. Delphi Method Graph (showing the median and including all members of the class that gave any answer other than “I don’t know.”)

 THE GRAPH WAS HERE 

THE GRAPH WAS HERE

This is an example of a Delphi Method done differently: This one has more steps than those we used in class. The main difference seen in this Delphi method example is the fact that you have to conduct some research about the question you need to ask first and assemble experts: people that are qualified within the field of study (our class case was just students!) to be talked about before making the final analysis. (From http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ch3c1.html)

Table 7
Study Design: Future of Communications Services into the Home

  1. Literature Search
  2. Assemble Panels of “Experts” and Housewives
  3. Design Draft Questionnaire
  4. Pretest Questionnaire
  5. Print and Distribute Revised Questionnaire (Identical, to Both Groups)
  6. Prepare Statistical Analysis of 1st-Round Answers
  7. Prepare Analysis of Supporting Comments from Each Group
  8. Design, Pretest, Print and Distribute 2nd-Round Questionnaire showing:
    1. 1st-Round Statistical Results from Each Group on One Page
    2. 1st-Round Supporting Comments from Each Group on Opposite Page
    3. Ask for Resolution of Answers within Each Panel
    4. Highlight Differences between Panels and Ask for Resolution
    5. Prepare Final Analysis
  1. The flaws of the technique we used in class are based on the facts that:
  • We chose our questions without doing any farther research.
  • We got the answers to our questions from students that did not necessarily have enough knowledge about the topics at hand.
  • Students could give answers based on other answers they heard others say (because we used non-printed questions) before even the whole class discussed for the first round (about the answers).
  • We had time constraints; we had a very short time (all the students had to ask their questions).

Part2:

  1. Question: When will the popular use (distributed use) of wireless power transmission be in effect?
  2. Privacy, security, or quality problems that may rise with the popularity of wireless power transmission technology:

Some of these problems would be based on the fact that:

  • People’s devices would consume electricity (getting electrically charged instantly) from any place where the electromagnetic settings are feasible: whether they are at a grocery store (like Wal-Mart), in church, in class, at hospital, at someone else’s house where they wouldn’t initially get their devices electrically charged with the normal (today’s popular) cable power transmission
  • The above problem involves invading other people’s electric power ownership privacy and it could also create some security problems

Effect on people and Society:

  • There may be increase in power use because of transmission loses
  • People will like this system better than the wired power transmission
  • People may start getting more interested in electric cars

Effect on organizations:

  • Wired power cable companies may lose customers that usually buy household power cables
  • Cable companies may adapt to the new changes and start producing the resonance based power transmitters
  • Electronic Device companies will change the way their devices are made by adding the magnetic coils to them so that they can wirelessly transmit power
  • New companies may rise to compete in this technology domain

Effect on government and other institution policies:

  • Governments may favor it because it would be green technology oriented
  • For this reason, the government may change tax rates for people that install wireless power systems into their company facilities and houses
  • Big companies, schools, or hospitals may technically incorporate the fact that, whether they allow it or not, all the employees’ and customers’ electronic devices would be getting electrically charged whenever they enter the facilities (such an effect could create a salary reduction or products or service prices to increase)

Homework II: Question 3: A, B, C, D

A.  Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Years Productivity
0 1
1 1.06
2 1.1236
3 1.191016
4 1.26247696
5 1.338225578
6 1.418519112
7 1.503630259
8 1.593848075
9 1.689478959
10 1.790847697
11 1.898298558
12 2.012196472
13 2.13292826
14 2.260903956
15 2.396558193
16 2.540351685
17 2.692772786

The average doubling time for a computer programmer when productivity increases by 6% a year is around 12 years.

B. Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By “complexity” we could say we’re talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)

Years Complexity
0 100
1 141.6
2 200.7888
3 284.7185184
4 403.7308591
5 572.4903582
6 811.7913279
7 1151.120103
8 1632.288306
9 2314.584818
10 3282.081272
11 4653.991243
12 6599.359583
13 9357.891889
By the recurrence  technique results, if we increase the complexity of a computer by 41.8 (almost 42) percent each year, its complexity will double after every two years.
C. Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
Months Complexity
0 100
1 104
2 108.16
3 112.4864
4 116.985856
5 121.6652902
6 126.5319018
7 131.5931779
8 136.856905
9 142.3311812
10 148.0244285
11 153.9454056
12 160.1032219
13 166.5073507
14 173.1676448
15 180.0943506
16 187.2981246
17 194.7900496
18 202.5816515
From these recurrence results, if we increase the complexity of a computer by 4 percent each month, its complexity will double after 18 months.
D. How long will it take for inflation to halve the value of $100 if inflation is occuring at 2% per year?
Years Inflation
0 100
1 98
2 96.04
3 94.1192
4 92.236816
5 90.39207968
6 88.58423809
7 86.81255332
8 85.07630226
9 83.37477621
10 81.70728069
11 80.07313507
12 78.47167237
13 76.90223893
14 75.36419415
15 73.85691026
16 72.37977206
17 70.93217662
18 69.51353309
19 68.12326242
20 66.76079718
21 65.42558123
22 64.11706961
23 62.83472822
24 61.57803365
25 60.34647298
26 59.13954352
27 57.95675265
28 56.7976176
29 55.66166524
30 54.54843194
31 53.4574633
32 52.38831403
33 51.34054775
34 50.3137368
35 49.30746206

Time to for inflation to halve the value $100  to $50 is around 34 years.

Homework II: Question 2

  1. When will the popular use (distributed use) of wireless power transmission be in full effect?

Effect on people: 

There may be increase in power use because of transmission loses

People will like this system better than the wired power transmission

People may start getting more interested in electric cars

Effect on organizations:

Wired power cable companies may lose customers that usually buy household power cables

Cable companies may adapt to the new changes and start producing the resonance based power transmitters

Electronic Device companies will change the way their devices are made by adding the magnetic coils to them so that they can wirelessly transmit power

New companies may rise to compete in this technology domain

 Effect on Society:

This will definitely be a positive thing for the society

The popular way we see power transmission will change

Homework II: Question 1

  1. When will World War III happen?
  • Before discussion:

Time is unknown: This answer was chosen by 5 students.

Time is known:  2012, 2020, 2062, 2112  (that’s 4 people)

The median: (2020+2060)/2=2040

It will never happen: This answer was chosen by 2 people

  • After Discussion:

Time is unknown: This answer was chosen by 3 students

Time is known:   2012, 2020, 2060, 2062, 2062  (that’s 5 people)

The median:2060

Time unknown: This answer was chosen by 3 people

It will never happen: This answer was chosen by 2 people